Fundación Valenciaport

In February 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a fall of -2.94% compared to the previous month, reaching 2,163 points. Despite this monthly drop, the index maintains a remarkable cumulative growth of 116.30% since its inception in 2018. As for the regional sub-indices, the one for the Western Mediterranean suffered a decrease of -10.75%, standing at 2,606.18 points, although it continues with a cumulative increase of 160.62% since 2018. The Far East sub-index also experienced a decrease of -3.43%, with a value of 2,291.36 points and a cumulative growth of 129.14% since the beginning of the series.

This scenario takes place in an uncertain global context, marked by the recent election of Donald Trump and changes in international policies. The geopolitical situation is constantly evolving, making it difficult to foresee the future direction. This has affected the maritime sector, which is influenced by protectionist policies, both current and under discussion, which alter trade flows and put pressure on transport routes. In particular, following the US elections, the import of goods has increased in anticipation of possible tariff increases, which could lead to higher freight rates and increased congestion in US ports in the near future. However, there is no doubt that this is already causing side effects, such as the saturation of storage capacity and the redistribution of cargoes to other routes, which is affecting several global markets.

Despite these factors, freight rates have shown a downward trend in the first months of 2025, probably due to seasonal effects. During the Lunar New Year in China and other Asian countries, production and shipment of goods decreases due to the festivities, as many factories and companies close or reduce their operations. This causes a drop in freight demand and thus shipping rates. This slowdown in business activity may be one of the reasons behind the drop in freight rates in January and February 2025. However, these rates tend to adjust in the off-season and could increase once business operations resume after the festive season.

In this vein, the RWI/ISL container traffic index has risen to 133.1 seasonally adjusted points, recovering the decline seen in previous months, although container traffic has stagnated since last summer. In the Eurozone, the economy of Northern European countries, especially Germany, has shown a remarkable increase, while traffic in Chinese ports has slightly decreased.

Regarding shipping supply, the idle containership fleet remained stable in February, representing less than 1% of the overall fleet. By 24 February, there were 67 idle vessels, with a slight increase in idle capacity by 35,479 TEUs, mainly due to shipping lines’ vessels. However, non-operational owners reactivated some of this capacity, helping to mitigate the increase. With only 0.7 per cent of the world fleet of 31 million TEUs idle, the industry continues to operate at full capacity. In addition, dry-docked capacity increased slightly, with 177 vessels under repair at the end of the month.

In the energy and commodities market, the price of Brent crude oil fell by 4.83% in February to $75.44 per barrel, down from $79.27 in January. In the marine fuels sector, a downward trend was also observed, with the price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) in the top 20 world ports decreasing by 3.96%, from $613.6 in January to $589.3 in February.

All in all, and although the sector faces challenges related to political volatility, seasonality and geopolitical changes, it continues to show a long-term growth trend. As trade activity recovers and trade policy adjustments stabilise, freight rates could be expected to stabilise or even increase in the near future.