Fundación Valenciaport

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) ends 2024 with a decrease of 4.13% in December compared to November, reaching 1,955.36 points. This result represents a cumulative growth of 95.54% since the start of the series in 2018. Regarding the Western Mediterranean sub-index, it has experienced a decrease of 26.03%, standing at 1,663.62 points, with a cumulative growth of 66.36% since 2018. Meanwhile, the Far East sub-index has recorded a drop of 6.05%, reaching 2,178.23 points, with a cumulative increase of 117.82% since the beginning of the series.

As for international trade demand, 2024 ends with a positive balance, marked by an annual growth of 3.3% in global exchanges. This progress was mainly driven by trade in services, which recorded an increase of 7%, while trade in goods grew by 2%. Both sectors showed an upturn in the third quarter, a trend that has continued until the end of the year.

The dynamism of international trade has been led by the developed economies, which have experienced an increase of 3% in imports and 2% in exports during the last quarter. Of particular note is Japan’s growth in exports of goods (5%) and services (13%), as well as the positive evolution of the United States and the European Union in services. In contrast, developing economies have faced greater challenges, with a 1% decline in quarterly imports and a marginal 1% growth in exports.

Looking ahead to next year, important uncertainties remain. Factors such as trade tensions, possible changes in US tariff policies, and geopolitical challenges threaten to affect the stability of global trade. These risks could have a significant impact on supply chains and international trade relations, especially in regions more exposed to changes in trade policies.

In terms of global shipping supply, the container sector ended 2024 showing sustained levels of activity, with the commercially idle fleet remaining at historic lows. At the beginning of December, this represented only 0.5% of global capacity, indicating that the sector continues to operate at near full capacity. Also, vessels in yards accounted for 2.2% of total capacity, below the levels recorded in the same period of 2023 (2.7%) and 2022 (3.3%), reflecting a gradual decrease in the time units are out of service for repairs or maintenance.

When analyzing capacity supply, the dynamism of exports from Asia to North America should be taken into account, driven by factors such as early bookings of goods ahead of the Chinese New Year, fears of possible tariffs under the new Trump Administration, and the threat of port strikes on the US East and Gulf coasts. In addition, the restructuring of the major shipping alliances planned for next year could generate temporary impacts on capacity supply as vessels are integrated into their new network configurations.

According to data from the consultancy Alphaliner, as of 31 December 2024, the total capacity of the world container fleet stands at 31,432,819 TEUs. In addition, already committed orders for new units will add an additional 7,414,423 TEUs, bringing total capacity to 38,847,242 TEUs as new vessels are delivered and enter service over the coming months. While this growth in capacity will represent an increase of 23.5%, it is important to note that the number of new vessels will not experience double-digit growth. However, an 8.5% increase in the total number of units is expected, with the addition of 618 new vessels, bringing the global containership fleet to a total of 7,806 units in service.

In the energy and commodities market, the average price of Brent crude oil experienced a slight negative variation in December, standing at $74.35 per barrel, compared to $73.76 in November, representing a decrease of 0.79%. Similarly, the marine fuel market also showed a drop, with the cost of bunkering in the top 20 global ports, according to Ship&Bunker data, reflecting a slight negative 1.07% change in the price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) from $583.7 in November to $577.50 in December.

According to Linerlytica, in mid-December, global port congestion increased slightly to 2.65 million TEUs, representing 8.5% of the total fleet. The improvement was mainly seen in Chinese ports, especially in Shanghai and Ningbo, where waiting times were as high as 2 days. In Europe, ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp, and London Gateway experienced high levels of yard occupancy, causing delays of up to 4 days. In Canada, Vancouver and Prince Rupert continue to face significant delays of up to 6 days due to work stoppages. In the United States, West Coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach remain relatively free of congestion, but East Coast ports such as New York and Savannah have continued to experience delays of up to 3 days.